Calibration
Optional. Plug in real pre-launch data to grade each signal and auto-suggest forecast inputs.
Your game
Forecast inputs
Release model
Choose whether the game ships straight to 1.0 or goes through Early Access first.
Advanced assumptions
Year 1 outlook
Net to studio over 1 year after Steam's 30% cut, refunds, and regional/discount haircuts.
Pessimistic
$90k
Base
$170k
Optimistic
$332k
Net copies sold over 1 year
17,069
Net per copy after Steam cut
$10
Break-even copies
—
Enter budget above
What moves the needle
Each driver swung through a defensible range with all others held at base. Coral = pessimistic swing, teal = optimistic swing. Sensitivity and deal comparisons use the 1-year figure as the stable reference.
Deal stress test
Compare publisher offers against a self-published baseline.
Self-published baseline
$170k
100% of post-Steam revenue to studio.
How the math works
A plain-language tour of the model and its assumptions.