byDan.tools

Steam Revenue Forecaster

Forecast your indie launch. Stress-test any publisher offer.

Updated for 2026 benchmarksBuilt for studios negotiating with publishersRuns 100% in your browser

Calibration

Optional. Plug in real pre-launch data to grade each signal and auto-suggest forecast inputs.

Your game

Forecast inputs

Release model

Choose whether the game ships straight to 1.0 or goes through Early Access first.

Advanced assumptions

Year-1 forecast

Net to studio after Steam's 30% cut, refunds, and regional/discount haircuts.

Downside

$92k

Base

$174k

Upside

$340k

Year-1 net copies sold

17,444

Net per copy after Steam cut

$10

Break-even copies

Enter budget above

What moves the needle

Each driver swung through a defensible range with all others held at base. Red = downside swing, teal = upside swing.

Deal stress test

Compare publisher offers against a self-published baseline.

Self-published baseline

$174k

100% of post-Steam revenue to studio.

How the math works

A plain-language tour of the model and its assumptions.